The latest headline in real estate is that sales were up 10.9% in July compared to the same time last year. While this makes for strong media coverage, year-over-year comparisons don’t always give us the clearest picture. As real estate professionals, we know the real story comes from looking at the most recent months’ trends.
Here’s what the past three months actually show in Toronto (416):
Detached Homes:
- May: 781
- June: 744
- July: 675
Semi-Detached Homes:
- May: 277
- June: 236
- July: 252
Condos:
- May: 973
- June: 1,014
- July: 1,028
Sales for semis and condos have been stable, while detached homes are actually down 9.27% month-to-month—a dip I’d associate with normal summer seasonality rather than any market weakness.
How much will your home earn in today’s market? Find out by booking your free home evaluation.
Key Observations
Affordability is improving. With easing interest rates, we expect one more cut in Q4.
Sales should stay steady. A slight September uptick is possible as new inventory enters the market.
Location and pricing precision matter most. “Blue chip” neighbourhoods like Sunnylea, The Kingsway, and Humber Valley/Edenbridge continue to hold and even outperform other areas of Etobicoke.
Signals Beyond Housing
Consumer trends provide useful clues about the housing market. Home Depot’s Q2 earnings (Aug 19) showed strong sales in smaller DIY projects like lighting and gardening, while shoppers avoided big-ticket renovation items. This suggests many homeowners are choosing to stay put rather than take on a move or major remodel.
The broader economy is also influencing housing. Inflation currently sits at 1.7%, below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. At first glance, this looks promising, but the dip is largely due to lower gas and natural gas prices after the carbon tax was temporarily set to zero.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) gives a clearer picture:
- Groceries are up 3.4% annually
- Shelter is up 3% annually
These figures show that everyday affordability pressures remain. For that reason, I anticipate a rate hold in September, with further changes more likely later in the year.
What This Means For Your Next Move
For buyers: More inventory and improved affordability create opportunity—especially in condos and entry-level freeholds where prices are softening.
For sellers: Proper preparation, precision pricing, and focus on location are critical. Well-positioned homes in top neighbourhoods are still commanding strong results.
For investors: Watch the condo market closely. Oversupply is weighing on values, but long-term fundamentals may create opportunities.
Let’s Talk Strategy
The fall market is often one of the busiest times of the year, with fresh listings and motivated buyers returning from summer holidays. With affordability improving and inventory stabilizing, this September could provide excellent opportunities for both buyers and sellers.
If you’re thinking about making a move this fall, now is the time to start preparing.
Let’s connect to discuss your strategy for the months ahead. Reach out to markian@sileckythompson.com or call 647-282-7653 to start a conversation.
Buying or selling in the near future? The posts below might come in handy:
- How to Buy a House in Etobicoke Before Selling Yours
- What Is the Difference Between Deposit and Down Payment?
- 10 Questions to Ask a Realtor® When Selling a House
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